Forex Firms Thrive On Volatile Exchange Rates

Dmitri Chavkerov believes that everybody has got the potential to achieve but they need to focus on the goal and cultivate the necessary skill sets through rigorous training to achieve the goal. “I used to run a lot when I was younger. One time, before I was about to go to another city in order to run a marathon, some chubby guy with a bunch of new age ideas asked me whether I have a goal for that marathon. I told him that I want to run it under 3 hours and 30 minutes.

However, it upgraded its forecast for the currency bloc for 2013 from a contraction of 0.6% to a contraction of 0.4%. It said “weakness” in the euro zone banking system was a “major drag” on growth and warned that there is an increasing risk of deflation in the currency bloc. The euro shrugged off a report showing that the ZEW index of German economic sentiment rose to a four-year high this month. The ZEW index of German economic sentiment rose to 54.6 in November from October’s reading of 52.8.

The Melbourne Institutes Australian Leading Index m/m came out earlier today, up 0.1 percent in September. Reserve Bank of Australia assistant governor Guy Debelle has reiterated the central banks position that the Australian dollar remains at uncomfortably high levels. Speaking earlier in the day, Debelle also said that an early tapering by the US Fed of its $85 billion bond purchasing programme would have a good impact on the Australian economy as the move should help to weaken the AUD. Fed chairman Ben Bernanke said in a speech overnight UTC that the stimulus programme will continue at the same pace until labour market and inflation targets are reached, despite the recent economic improvement. In the US today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics is due to release the October Consumer Price Index m/m at 13.30 UTC, which is expected to be unchanged from September.

Forex: AUD/USD: RBA’s Debelle reiterates AUD too high

Committee members may though have been divided over the Bank of Englands central forecasts released last week in the Quarterly Inflation Report. The MPC now expects unemployment to hit the seven percent threshold in Q3 2015, a year earlier than the BoEs initial estimate in August (see left chart below). The BoE readily admits that there is considerable uncertainty surrounding its central projections, with the inflation report underlining a range of views on the committee over the extent to which productivity gains will trim the jobless rate. If it transpires from the minutes that some MPC members see the fall in unemployment happening faster than their colleagues, theres likely to be a responsive strengthening of sterling against the euro.

counterpart on Wednesday, despite positive inflation data out of New Zealand, as comments by Federal Reserve Chairman sent the greenback broadly higher. NZD/USD hit 0.8326 during late Asian trade, the session low; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.8337, shedding 0.43%. The pair was likely to find support at 0.8268, the low of November 15 and resistance at 0.8415, the high of November 6. Official data earlier showed that producer price inflation input rose 2.2% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations for a 0.6% uptick, after a 0.6% rise in the three months to June.

What these statistics almost conclusively establish is that a larger fall in the rupees value results in higher profits of exchange companies. But what is even more important is that its actually the volatility in exchange rates and just the year-on-year fall in the rupees value that gives them a chance to make bigger profits, says a central banker. Perhaps that is why executives of exchange companies are optimistic about having made increased profits in FY13, when the exchange rates remained extremely volatile, but the rupee declined by just 5.4 per cent. Meanwhile, operations of exchange companies are now being monitored more minutely by the SBP than ever before, as central bankers suspect the involvement of some of them in the smuggling of foreign currencies out of Pakistan and illegal electronic forex transfers abroad. The reporting requirements have been tightened. The Federal Investigation Agency (FIA) and the SBP have now agreed on joint vigilance at airports and other exit points to check the smuggling of foreign currencies out of the country.


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